The craps odds bet: the one wager paid at its true price
Filed under: Table games, Odds and probability — permalink
The odds bet behind a point is the rare wager paid at its true mathematical price. That makes it unusual enough to be worth understanding on its own terms, and useful as a reference point when reading the rest of the layout.
How a point is priced
Once a point is established, the question is whether that number appears again before a seven. Seven has six ways to be rolled with two dice, more than any other total, and each point number has fewer. The ratio of those counts is the true odds, and it differs for each point.
Paying the true ratio
The odds bet pays exactly that ratio. Six and eight have five ways each against seven's six, and the payout follows six to five. Five and nine have four ways, paid three to two. Four and ten have three ways, paid two to one. In each case the payout matches the count, so the expected result on that portion of the wager is neutral.
Why it does not make the game neutral
The odds bet can only be placed behind a line bet that does carry an edge, and its size is capped relative to that line bet. So the combined wager still carries an edge; the odds portion dilutes it rather than removing it. A game cannot be made edge-free by adding a fairly priced component to an unfairly priced one.
Reading the rest of the layout
Most other propositions on a craps table pay noticeably less than their true ratio, and the single-roll bets in the centre are the clearest examples. Comparing each payout against its own dice count is a quick way to see which parts of a busy layout are priced tightly and which are not.